After Parliament managed to wrangle the contents of the Operation Yellowhammer documents out of the Government, its forecast for social care providers was alarming but only a revelation to those working outside the sector.
"An increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social care providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure…”. May? I would be astounded if it doesn’t. There is a real possibility of thousands of vulnerable people losing their home. And it is unlikely to mirror the collapse of Southern Cross in 2011 where residents were easily transferred to other homes. Those homes would be at risk themselves.
Small providers have been given a 2-3 month window before experiencing the harmful impact of a no-deal Brexit, larger providers being afforded the luxury of a 4-6 month stay of execution after 31 October, the forecast states.
The Government has stressed that this is the worst-case scenario and measures to alleviate this situation have been put in place since it was drawn up at the end of August. If they are referring to the funds allocated in this month’s Spending Review, that this not going to go far. This latest sticking plaster seems to be a curled up, recycled one, almost as if it had been picked up from the floor of a swimming pool changing room. It won’t be of much use for long.
Social care providers, particularly those relying on local authority funding, are already close to the edge, absorbing financial losses while striving to provide the best quality care. Imagine what the smallest of hikes to the price of food, heating and fuel might mean to the average family. When caring for up to 100 people, it would be the final nail in an already battered coffin for many providers, large and small.
Crashing out of the EU will hit all social care providers, even those luxury ones with private paying clients. The current staff shortages will be exacerbated by workers no longer having the right to stay or come to the UK. The fight for the best managers will intensify further, leaving some care homes without one for long periods of time, driving down the quality of care provided.
This is not something that can be brushed off. If the Government is insistent on pursuing a hard Brexit, it need to put some serious cash it place to soften the landing for social care. Otherwise the results will be catastrophic for the sector and society as a whole.